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signs of serious weakness in the U.S labor market




U.S nonfarm payroll employment change:


The U.S nonfarm payroll report is a strong economic event waited by traders, economists and central bankers.
It gives a detailed view on the labor market; it’s changes, trend and healthiness.
Forecasters are looking for a slightly uptick for September NFP employment change about 145k from 130K in august.
Even though, this expected added number to the labor force would not affect much the slowing trend of total employment on a year on year basis.
Looking at the chart below, we see a downside trend, from January 2019 top of 1.9% to august 1.4% and the same is expected for September data.

us emloyment chart






U.S initial jobless claims 


On the other hand, for the weekly initial jobless claims, we observe that the percentage change (monthly average) on a year on year basis is increasing in an uptrend. And with first number in October we turned to positive area, which means that U.S people are losing jobs more than October of previous year.
us emloyment chart


Those main two signals, lower job creation and increasing jobless claims, are pointing to a serious weakness in the U.S labor market. And as a normal result we may see more weakening in personal consumption expenditures and income data as pointed out in the last PCE report for august.


us emloyment chart


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